Oil Wells
What is the probability of at least two wells will yield oil?
Only about 20% of exploration wells drilled in geologically locations favorable yield commercially viable quantities of oil. Suppose that the four wells are drilled independently in locaion favorable. What is the probability of at least two wells will yield oil? the answer given in the textbook is 0.1808
Implement the binomial distribution where: n = 4 p = 0.20 (1-p) = 0.80 We are trying to find P (X> = 2) which is P (2) + P (3) + P (4), or we can take shortcut and find [1 - (P (0) + P (1)) using the laws of probability. P (0) = n \ / ^ p ((nx)!) X (1-p) ^ (nx) P (0) = 4x3x2 / (4x3x2) (0.2) ^ 0 (0.8) ^ 4 = 0.4096 P (1) = 4x3x2/3x2 (0.2) ^ 1 (0.8) ^ 3 = 0.4096 1 - (0.4096 + 0.4096) = 0 , 1808
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